When Goodluck Ebele Azikiwe Jonathan (b. 1957) assumed the presidency of Nigeria for the first time in 2010, he became the leader of one of the most difficult nations to govern in the world..
As a political entity constructed from its days as a British colony, Nigeria is fragmented into three major religious groups by dint of geography. While the Muslim Hausa-Fulani peoples comprise much of the north, the south is divided by the animist Igbos (pronounced E-Bose) in the southeast and the Yorubas in the southwest - who split their allegiances to Christianity and Islam. The Nigerian population of 160 million is the largest in Africa, and no fewer than nine out of ten Nigerians believe in God. As Muslims, Christians and animists have disparate conceptions of how religion ought to relate to society, the idea of Nigeria as a nation has always been precarious.
.
The key to understanding Nigeria is the nexus between religion, economics and education. The largely Muslim north is not only poor but largely illiterate. As ninety-five percent of Nigeria's Muslim women can neither read nor write, they are largely unable to educate their children. Consequently, the next generation of Nigerian Muslims may be as socially and economically alienated as many of their parents are today. While most people in the country subsist on $2 a day or less, the Muslim north has a greater degree of indigence than the south, and a toxic mixture of impoverishment, illiteracy and religious dogma has produced a radical Islamist movement similar to Al-Qaeda.
.
In 2002, Mohammed Yusuf (1970-2009) founded Boko Haram, a militant organization of Muslim radicals, which seeks to overthrow the democratic Nigerian government and usher in Islamic caliphate-rule. In rejecting all Western influences and considering all non-Muslims to be infidels, they have embraced violence and terror to carry out their religious and political objectives. Although the Nigerian government successfully eliminated Yusuf three years ago, his organization remains a significant security threat. On Christmas Day, Boko Haram was likely behind a vicious bombing of a Catholic Church in the capital (Abuja). At least thirty-seven people died. On 20 January (2012), Boko Haram militants conducted an attack in in the northern city of Kano - one of the largest Muslim cities in the world - to protest the progressive leanings of its residents. More than two hundred innocent people were killed.
.
Until Goodluck Jonathan was elected in 2011 after serving as head of state for several months upon the death of Umaru Musa Yar'Adua - a Muslim, it had been customary for the presidency to alternate between a Christian and a Muslim. Due to his even-handed style of governing, however, Jonathan, a Christian, was retained with a mandate of nearly 78% of the vote. As a result, more than a few Muslims consider his election a betrayal of the informal turnabout agreement on the office. For them, a Muslim should now be president to finish out the term of Yar'Adua.
.
The Verge of Catastrophe
.
That sense of uneasiness among moderate Muslims was compounded by Jonathan's decision to end the national fuel subsidy on 1 January. As Nigeria is the largest exporter of oil in Africa (Angola is second) and the fourteenth largest in the world, it has been able to support its economically deprived population by providing fuel at near at cost prices. Due to budgetary considerations, however, Jonathan and his government repealed the benefit on the first day of 2012.
.
Predictably, there was an immediate popular backlash. Over a five-day period from 9-13 January, the divided nation went on a collective strike and effectively shut down the country. According to polls, 80% of Nigerians oppose Jonathan's decision to end the subsidy. While nationwide unity exists on this hotbed issue, the increase in fuel prices will disproportionately harm the poorest elements in society and further alienate and radicalize the Muslim north. There is already talk of splitting the nation in half to allow a Muslim nation in the north and a Christian/Animist nation in the south, and a palpable fear now exists that another civil war is in the offing. Many people still remember the catastrophic civil war of 1967. It took one million Nigerian lives, and the idea of Nigeria undergoing another holocaust is simply unthinkable. Yet, the prospect of such a conflict is unfortunately quite real.
.
No Luck for Goodluck
.
If the phenomenon of luck exists, it is almost always a product of hard work and making wise choices. The first responsibility of Jonathan and the government is to bridge the educational and economic divide between the north and the south. Rather than addressing these debilitating social factors, however, Jonathan has only exacerbated the chasms within the country by repealing the fuel subsidy - a lifeline of support for tens of millions. As the world knows, businesses pass on rising transportation costs by increasing the prices of their goods. Hence, Nigerian consumers, who have little to no disposable income, not only face higher gas prices but also higher prices for necessities such as food, clothing and medicine.
.
At a time when Nigeria desperately needs sound investment in education and infrastructure from its oil profits, a broad re-distribution of wealth and a comprehensive plan to build communities of trust between people of different faiths, Jonathan may have just taken the fatal step toward the dissolution of the state by trying to balance a budget instead of balancing the larger and significantly more important interests of the citizens.
.
The African Union and the international community cannot afford to ignore Nigeria's crisis. While offers of economic and technical assistance must come from the G-8 nations, social and community activists from South Africa and around the continent ought to converge upon Nigeria for a series of conferences in order to share their expertise in religious and cultural reconciliation.
.
Unless Jonathan's government re-instates the fuel subsidy and takes steps to reshape Nigeria into an inclusive community based on social, economic and political equality, he will have no luck in governing the state.
.
He will be out of luck. And Nigeria will be out of time.
.
(Photo: Goodluck Jonathan)
.
Key Sources/Further Reading
.
1. To read an article in The Atlantic entitled "Should The World Help Break Up Nigeria In Order To Save It?" (24 January 2012), please click onto the following link: http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2012/01/should-the-world-help-break-up-nigeria-in-order-to-save-it/251784/
2. To read a BBC NEWS article entitled "Is Nigeria On The Brink After North-South Clashes?" (13 January 2012), please click onto the following link: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-16544410
3. To view informative maps of Nigeria, please click onto kleostimes.tumblr.com to the right and check postings under 29 January.
.
J Roquen