As the world continues to focus on the Greek and Spanish financial crises and the spate of recent belligerent maneuvers by North Korea, a small republic in Central Asia may hold a significant key to geopolitics not only regionally but also in the contours and wider aspirations of global affairs..
After gaining independence on Christmas Day 1991, Kyrgyzstan, which is surrounded by three other former Soviet republics (Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan) and China, has struggled to achieve sound governance and a core identity.
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The Tulip Revolution (2005)
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In a nation of 5.4 million, politics is centered in the capital of Bishkek. As leaders sought to diversify the economy and expand markets subsequent to the collapse of the Soviet Union, financial and political corruption became rife by the the turn of the millennium. In 2005, three ministers of parliament were assassinated in a brazen campaign of intimidation by organized criminals. In fact, the government was already being compromised by cronyism and malfeasance under President Askar Akayer.
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When substantive allegations of ballot box tampering surfaced in the parliamentary elections that year, the people of Kyrgyzstan revolted. A series of protests, which began in February, spread around the country ultimately led to Akayer's departure one month later. A round of fresh elections brought Kurmanbek Bakiyev into power with a clear electoral mandate. It was a significant accomplishment by a grass-roots effort in a nation with almost no democratic traditions. The people's victory, however, proved to be short lived.
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The April Revolts (2010)
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Last month, riots broke out around Kyrgyzstan with demands that Bakiyev resign. His five-year tenure had indeed been fraught with controversy and turmoil. While questions still remain over his government's relationships with large corporate interests, it was Bakiyev's simultaneous stiff posture toward the US and courtship of China that seemed to unnerve a sizable segment of the population. Reports of electoral fraud in the 2009 election, which awarded him another term, further undermined public support.
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Bakiyev, now in exile in Belarus, has been supplanted by a transitional government under the stewardship of Roza Otunbayeva - a former leader in the Tulip Revolution. As Ms. Otunbayeva (b. 1950) is a female politician, she is the epitome of change in a society where women are seldom seen in professional positions. In this respect, the April 'riots' or 'revolts' can be said to be truly revolutionary.
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Power, Influence and Stability
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The new government of Kyrgyzstan faces a number of daunting challenges ahead. First, it must act to stabilize the economy by taking measures to reduce the gap between prices and wages. Secondly, Ms. Otunbayeva will have to prudently negotiate with three powerful nations vying for influence in the region - Russia, China and the US. By allowing Washington to keep an air base in the country, the interim government possesses the leverage to deal with the economic demands of Beijing and the security concerns of Moscow. Thirdly, a plan must be devised to ensure equal access to education and jobs among all ethnic groups to mitigate tensions (currently between Kyrgyz and Uzbeks) and to forestall potential paralyzing unrest in the future.
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A great geopolitical game is being played out across the world between the US, China and Russia, and no nation, not even tiny Kyrgyzstan, is immune or unimportant in its outcome.
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(Photo: A Scene from The Tulip Revolution, 2005)
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J Roquen