A Blog That Covers And Collects News Reports And Information On Artificial Intelligence, Robots, And Super Computers.
Who Opened The Flood Gates?
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Prior to examining the current natural disasters in India, Japan and the one now effecting the Caribbean and the United States, a review of 'The Johnstown Flood' of 1889 (Pennsylvania, USA) will illustrate how nature and the detrimental actions of man can create tragedy.
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At 3:10pm on 31 May 1889, disaster stuck Johnstown, Pennsylvania. The South Fork Dam, which had been completed in 1853 after 15 years of construction buckled. In just a few minutes, 20 million tons of water in a giant wave 40 feet high and six blocks wide drowned the entire area. After being deluged by a force equal to Niagara Falls, 2,209 people perished including 124 women and 396 children. Today, a museum stands on the site as a memorial to the victims.
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Sadly, no one had to die. In the Gilded Age, wealthy tycoons wielded the greatest power in society, and Pennsylvania was no exception. Henry Clay Frick, a disciple of the steel magnate Andrew Carnegie, decided to pool a portion of his extensive financial resources with other investors to create the South Fork Fishing and Hunting Club. In order to build the retreat, a plan was hatched to lower the South Fork Dam for the purpose of constructing a road to allow automobile access for its exclusive members. As leaks occurred from years of inattention, cracks in the facade of the dam were often repaired - not with cement - but with straw and mud.
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When a heavy thunderstorm began producing excessive amounts of rainfall in late May of that year (1889), the dam, which had been altered to provide for the pleasures of the rich and powerful and never properly maintained, gave way. The 2,209 victims were anything but privileged. They were nearly all middle or lower class Americans. Who opened the flood gates? In this case, 'an act of God' and a corrupt elite.
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Japan and India, 31 August 2008
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The social and political ramifications of the recent floods in Japan and India, which occurred in the last few days, will require time to assess. While approximately 500,000 people were evacuated to safety from areas in central Japan subsequent to a storm that generated nearly 6 inches of rain in a single hour, floods in Northeastern India (Bihar) have sent 1 million people to relief camps, left 300,000 stranded, more than half a million homeless and nearly 3 million displaced. As food and supplies have been held up due to inclement weather, starvation, dehydration, an outbreak of disease and social unrest remain distinct possibilities over the next few days. Fortunately, only 1 person is known to have died in Japan while fewer than 30 have lost their lives in India thus far.
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New Orleans, USA - Hurricane Gustav (1 September 2008)
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At this time, weather forecasters are predicting landfall for Hurricane Gustav will occur early Monday morning (tomorrow, 1 September) with a Category 3 impact (120mph). Hundreds of thousand of people on the Gulf coast states of Louisiana and Mississippi are in the process of evacuating northward. Unless a dramatic reversal of fortune occurs, New Orleans will be directly hit by a major storm only three years after Hurricane Katrina in 2005. The bungled response to Katrina revealed the US government to be at least partially disorganized and ineffectual in handling the human crisis as 1,800 people died. Thirty-six months later, the city of New Orleans and the federal government appear to be far more prepared and coordinated.
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Unlike Johnstown, the natural disasters in Japan, India and America may have a common link. Many scientists attribute the increasing number of severe weather patterns to the effects of climate change. As the rise in the earth's temperature has been equated to the high levels of carbon dioxide in the air, the question 'Who opened the flood gates?' can be answered quite easily in the 21st century. It is 'man'. If people and the nations of the world do not adequately address the crisis of global warming and fail to replace fossil fuels with environmentally-friendly alternatives, then humankind will eventually pass through the flood gates of existence.
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For a truly engaging narrative of the 1889 deluge in Pennsylavnia, the book, The Johnstown Flood (1968) by David McCullough is highly recommended.
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J Roquen
Laughter
3034m Critical Mass red riding hood, originally uploaded by Chris[topher] Lin
Our little girl giggled for the first time when we were watching the Olympics. The laugh came out of nowhere and it was so different from her usual happy noises. We looked at the TV, then we looked at her, then we looked at each other.
"Was that really her?"
"Yep, I heard it too!"
"Do it again, sweetie! Can you laugh? Laugh for mommy! Etc."
We spent the right of the night trying to make her duplicate the sound. She hasn't repeated it yet. That's okay. I'm sure she'll laugh again soon, and hopefully, for the rest of her life.
YouTube Comment Snob
Rage Against the Machine, originally uploaded by miqul
This is a public service announcement.
Everyone run and get YouTube Comment Snob. Here's how it works: YouTube is a great site, but sometimes I accidentally read the comments underneath a video, and then I need to wash my eyes out with bleach afterwards. Comment Snob auto-magically censors comments with bad spelling, grammar, or profanity; all rules are optional and customizable.
Where before you had the braying of donkeys, you now have a beautifully edited field such as the example below. It makes the Internet safe for humans again. This is the reason Firefox add-ons were invented. Thanks, YouTube Comment Snob!
FDR: Whirlwind In Chicago
One Night In Bangkok: Thailand On The Edge
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From the early 1980s to 1997, Thailand thrived on both its burgeoning tourist economy and agricultural exports. In particular, its rice was in demand all over Asia. When the Southeast Asian bubble collapsed at the end of the last decade, Thailand fractured and fell into a malaise.
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Similar to Pakistan in 1999, civilian rule was pre-empted in Thailand two years ago by the military. Rather than a national security crisis as in Islamabad, Thai generals stepped in to end the corrupt government of Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra. Subsequently indicted for malfeasance, Thaksin went into exile, and Thailand descended into an urban/non-urban divide. While farmers in the countryside still supported Thaksin due to his generous welfare programs for the rural poor, mid to large population centers railed against his supposed pilfering of the public coffers.
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Since the military relinquished power, Thailand has not been able make a seamless return to democracy despite holding national elections. Indeed, the Thais past is currently paralyzing its future. Last week, 30,000 people, spurred on by the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD), marched in the streets of Bangkok to demand the resignation of the current Prime Minister - Samak Sundaravej. Although PAD accuses him of being a puppet for Thaksin, Samak has actually forced the ex-PM into exile once again by speeding up a government investigation of his financial improprieties and incarcerating his wife on tax evasion. PAD also criticized the Samak government for endorsing a proposal to declare a Buddhist temple, situated on the border with Cambodia, a World Heritage Site in order to diffuse a potential armed confrontation. The Foreign Minister, a former Thaksin lawyer who assisted in negotiating the compromise, resigned amid a shrill public outcry against perceived appeasement of Phenom Penh.
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Regardless of the Bangkok's attempt to act pragmatically, the PAD refuses to be mollified. More demonstrations are planned, and PAD, despite its name, actually seeks a larger role for the military in government for the purpose of securing law and order.
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What can be learned from the recent history of Thailand, and how should the West respond? Thailand mirrors Pakistan and vice versa to an important degree. Both have large population segments partial to military government due to the absence of a legitimate legal system. Hence, the United States and Europe must assist both nations in reforming their respective laws to ensure fair, non-politicized trials, due process and rights of appeal. If Thailand and Pakistan each move toward erecting a functional framework of justice, cronyism and militarism will recede in the wake of new tides of democracy.
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J Roquen
LBJ 2008: Let Us Continue
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On the night of 27 August 1964, LBJ accepted the Democratic nomination for the presidency less than a year after the assassination of John F. Kennedy. In Atlantic City, New Jersey, the 'accidental' president adopted the theme of 'Let Us Continue'. The three word phrase was intended to connote LBJ's intention to fulfill the Kennedy legacy by enacting legislation on civil rights, instituting socio-economic reforms and advancing the ambitious goal of sending a man to the moon by 1970.
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Some of the remarks in his address have particular relevance today. Although forty-four years have passed since the landslide election of 1964, America is still beset by many of the same core social and economic problems. In the middle of his speech, Johnson outlined seven points of agreement between the preponderant political sentiments of the country and his vision for a full-term as president. Each point has been reproduced and contrasted with the most recent economic data available for the US (2006) in the paragraphs below. Only one inescapable conclusion can be made. Entrenched poverty, broad access to high-quality education and economic vulnerability remain fixtures in American life.
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'Most Americans want medical care for older citizens. And so do I.' -LBJ
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Although fundamental medical costs are covered by Medicare, seniors currently have to pay thousands of dollars annually for a supplement to offset the residual costs of catastrophic illness. Younger persons do not fare nearly as well in comparison. Nearly 20% of the 47 million Americans, who do not have health insurance, work either full or part-time. Why? Neither employers or employees can afford the cost. Even more significant, approximately 90 million citizens were without health insurance for some period of time in 2006-07 due to losing or changing jobs. Until the US government acts decisively to ensure that all Americans have access to affordable health care, companies (i.e. GM) and people alike will remain vulnerable to both disease and bankruptcy or a combination thereof respectively.
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'Most Americans want fair and stable prices and decent incomes for our farmers. And so do I.'
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In the current economic downturn due to the meteoric rise of oil prices, general inflation has risen to a level not seen since the Bush recession of 1990-91. Most notably, food prices have soared, and many staples including eggs and wheat have experienced double-digit percentage increases. As a result, relative wages continue to fall and business has slowed on less consumer spending. Meanwhile, the top American CEO made just over $84 million last year. What is 'fair and stable' about a system that not only allows but perpetuates extreme economic disparities? LBJ and most of the political leaders from the WWII era, regardless of party, would be incredulous at the gap between the rich and the poor in the 21st century.
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'Most Americans want a decent home in a decent neighborhood for all. And so do I.'
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The sub-prime mortgage crisis has been a travesty for hundreds of thousands of Americans. Many have lost their home as a result of having agreed to non-fixed, usurious rates of interest, and another 10-20% of the population is threatened with the possibility of foreclosure in the future. Because only 40% of working Americans have made financial progress (i.e. the ability to save money with higher incomes) since 2003, 6 in 10 prospective home-buyers have ruled out purchasing a house within the next two years.
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'Most Americans want an education for every child to the limit of his ability. And so do I.'
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While progress has been made on many levels, the cost of higher education is making college an unreachable prospect for millions of young people. A private college, which has always been beyond the scope of middle-class families, now charges an average annual tuition of $23,712 - up 6.3% over a mere 12-month period. Tuition at public 4-year colleges, which costs considerably less, rose 6.6% over the last year and averages $6,185 annually. After adding the cost of room & board, books, fees and miscellaneous expenses, the dream of graduating from college will become a broken dream unless politicians and college administrators rethink the value of education in something other than monetary terms.
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'Most Americans want a job for every man who wants to work. And so do I.'
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Since the failure of the Truman administration to pass the 'Full-Employment Act', Americans have continued to be at the mercy of the boom and bust cycles of the economy. Unemployment insurance is, unfortunately, becoming a more popular source of income today due to the spike in recent layoffs. While the national average nears 6.0%, parts of the nation have been mired in high unemployment of 10% or more. College tuition credits, job training and targeted government investment will be required to lift the burden of indignity off the shoulders of millions of blue and white collar workers.
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'Most Americans want victory in our war against poverty. And so do I.'
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The war in Vietnam prevented LBJ from building a 'Great Society' whereby poverty was to have been relegated to history books and museums. Indeed, poverty is a scourge that runs through the heart of American society in the 21st century. More than 1 out of every 10 (12.3%) or 36.5 million Americans live in poverty amid the wealthiest nation on earth. Homeless shelters, food pantries and churches providing food and/or shelter have been reporting record numbers of visitors around the nation. The plight of Blacks and Hispanics is simply appalling. As almost 1 in 4 (24.3%) African-Americans lives below the poverty line, more than 1 in 5 (20.6%) Hispanics cannot survive without economic assistance. On this subject, there is little more to say - and much to do.
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'Most Americans want continually expanding and growing prosperity. And so do I.'
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As the United States makes headway in eliminating the uninsured and reducing poverty in the coming years, the breadth of prosperity will be greater and more enduring than in previous decades. If the 37 million Americans in poverty can be turned into 37 million working, tax-paying citizens, then any governmental assistance rendered in lifting the impoverished out of their unfortunate circumstance will pay for itself many times over.
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Whether the next president is a Republican or a Democrat, perhaps he should utter the following words at his inauguration speech, 'Most Americans want our government - 'of the people, by the people and for the people' - to make education, health care, housing and a good job a right for every citizen instead of a privilege. And so do I.
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J Roquen
Growing up
The epiphany that I am in control of my own life was somewhat terrifying, but ultimately incredibly liberating, of course. It turns out that adults can have responsibilities and have fun too. You can still go on adventures when you're grown up. We can try new hobbies and explore new places and meet new people. Adults can even turn their living room into a ball pit.
Now I have another chance to reinvent myself, while I decide what kind of dad I want to be. Being an adult is awesome, and I look forward to being a great father. I love playing with my 2-year-old niece because it's an excuse to act like a kid again. The key to being a successful grownup is never forgetting what it's like to be young.
Echoes Of Marian Anderson
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When Frederick Douglass, the ex-slave turned abolitionist speaker and writer, entered the White House to meet the president in the summer of 1864, Lincoln put off a (white) Connecticut Senator to have a lengthy discussion with him. That was Lincoln. Future presidents were not nearly as gracious in receiving black leaders.
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On 28 August 1963, ninety-nine years after Douglass' cordial reception by the American head of state, Martin Luther King Jr., a Baptist Minister, led a throng of civil rights supporters in a 'March on Washington for Jobs and Freedom' rally. African-Americans, who still failed to receive equal pay, equal access to education and employment and equal treatment in society a century after gaining their constitutional freedom, refused to endure another century of indignity.
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Between the eras of Douglass and King, Marian Anderson (1897-1993), a relatively obscure woman, profoundly altered race-relations in America by simply asking for a chance to sing in public.
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Marian was a born singer. After high school, however, she was denied admittance to a nearby music school. The reason? She was black. Undaunted, Marian continued singing in churches and accepted an invitation to showcase her contralto voice at the National Baptist Convention in 1919.
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1919 was a significant year in American history. The US had emerged victorious in WWI and became the greatest power in the world. Despite the achievement, black American soldiers made 'Double-victory' signs with their hands: a 'V' sign on one hand to represent the recent victory against the Germans and another 'V' sign on the other hand to signify a future victory of black equality in their country. After being treated without discrimination in France and other parts of Europe, many black soldiers began to resent their economic and social constraints at home.
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One particular example of entrenched discrimination illustrates their point perfectly. President Woodrow Wilson, who was born prior to the Civil War in slaveholding Virginia, segregated his White House to reflect his discomfort with intermingling between the races. Even a few previous presidents (i.e. Theodore Roosevelt) exhibited a more progressive attitude toward non-white members of society. Wilson may have been the most popular person in the world in 1919 for effectively having won WWI, but blacks, who received no tangible benefits from his administration, were far less impressed. In fact, Congress was even unable to pass anti-lynching legislation due to the power of Southern Democrats.
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Nine years later on 30 December 1928, Marian attended Carnegie Hall to conduct a recital. Thereafter, she studied music in black-friendly Britain on earned scholarships prior to seven months (September 1933-April 1934) of solo concerts in Scandinavia. Two royals, King Gustav of Sweden and King Christian of Denmark, each personally invited Marian to perform privately. Europe had fallen in love with an African-American female singer from Philadelphia.
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Marian returned home at one of the bleakest times in American history. Millions of people slept in public parks without food, shelter or hope. Farmers in the Midwest stormed into courthouses to prevent judges from foreclosing their property, and Adolf Hitler overran Czechoslovakia in 1938 and seemed bent on war. Then in early 1939, many despairing Americans found inspiration in an unlikely person.
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All Marian wanted was to perform at Constitutional Hall in Washington, DC, but the manager, who was an avowed racist, rejected her bid to rent the venue. When word reached the national press, a collective outcry was heard from every corner of America. First Lady Eleanor Roosevelt, who had quietly championed civil rights behind the scenes of her prominent husband, was appalled and took immediate action. Realizing that Constitutional Hall was owned by the Daughters of the American Revolution, of which she was a member, Eleanor penned a letter of resignation to the organization in protest of its blatant discrimination towards the singer. The First Lady, a shrewd woman of compassion, creativity and boldness, then arranged a concert for Marian with assistance from the NAACP on Easter Sunday (9 April) on the steps of the Lincoln Memorial.
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As the performance would be outdoors and free to the public, it would not only measure Marian's popularity but also be a barometer on race-relations as well. How many people would bother to show up - a few hundred or a few thousand?
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On a beautiful Easter Sunday, Marian Anderson rendered her most memorable singing performance by singing patriotic songs to a crowd of 75,000 people and to many millions more to a live radio audience over the air. It was a triumphal moment for human dignity due to the courage of two formidable women.
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Barack Obama frequently credits the many people throughout history who paved the way for his opportunity to become president. Quite naturally, he probably first thinks of Frederick Douglass, Rosa Parks, Martin Luther King Jr. and the other famous civil rights figures. If he listens carefully enough, however, he may still hear echoes of freedom in the voice of Marian Anderson.
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J Roquen
Psycho Pug
Then she went insane.
These days, the dog wakes me up around 4:00 in the morning. Sometimes we can get her to go back to sleep, and she'll be quiet for up to an hour, if we're lucky. Eventually I need to roll out of bed and take her outside. It's pitch black and quiet in the city before 5. I would enjoy it if I wasn't still asleep. Anyway, she has always slept in the bedroom with us, but I think it might be time for her to get her own place.
Old Europe, New Afghanistan
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Neither Chancellor Gerhard Schroder nor President Jacques Chirac were amused, and anti-American sentiment on the Continent skyrocketed.
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In the last two years, however, a sea-change has taken place in Western European politics. The Iraq war is still highly unpopular, but voters in France and Germany have elected a new leaders devoid of a jaundiced view of America and ready to re-engage the US on matters of global security.
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Although President Bush and the Republican Party consider Iraq to be the 'frontline' in the 'War on Terror', Old Europe believes the faultline lies in Afghanistan. Indeed, the foreign policies of Angela Merkel, Nicholas Sarkozy and Gordon Brown have been nearly indistinguishable toward Kabul. In their view, the failure of Afghanistan to become a viable, democratic nation-state would effectively give the Taliban and Al-Qaeda a license to continue regional and international terrorist operations. Hence, Old Europe has decided draw a security line in the sands of Afghanistan.
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Angela Merkel, German Tightrope Walker
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As soon as she became the first female head of state in her country, Angela Merkel began to repair US-German relations within NATO by conducting a personal dialogue with President Bush. While still tepid on Iraq, the German government, which allowed several of the nineteen 9/11 hijackers to operate on its soil undetected, remains deeply concerned over extant Al-Qaeda cells both within its borders and abroad. When Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama visited and spoke to 200,000 applauding 'Berliners', he also chatted with his potential future colleague in private.
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Merkel reminded Obama that the number of deployable German soldiers to Afghanistan was capped at 3,000 by Parliament. As that mandate will lapse in October, however, her Minister of Defense, Franz Josef Jung, has already announced that Germany will send an additional 1,000 troops by the end of the year. Clearly, Merkel intends to bolster NATO prospects for success in the remote Asian region.
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Nicholas Sarkozy: Out From The Long Shadow of de Gaulle
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If Chirac and Sarkozy had followed the lead of their distinguished predecessor, Charles de Gaulle, then France would have broken off virtually all military ties with the US upon the unilateral invasion of Iraq. Fortunately for Washington, critical demagoguery from French politicians of all stripes was the only political fallout from the rift. A long-term chasm in Franco-American relations certainly could have been the result.
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Fifty years ago in September (1958), an already alienated de Gaulle wrote a famous diatribe against the integration of military forces under NATO to President Eisenhower and the British Prime Minister. The liberator of France from the Nazis wanted no part in surrendering any portion of French sovereignty to a transnational security arrangement dominated by the US and the UK, and his independent course proved domestically popular.
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Despite likely temptations to follow a similar course out of spite, Chirac and Sarkozy reacted prudently. Sarkozy, who had been Minister of the Interior prior to being elected President, understood the linkage between international and national security. For France to maintain its security, it needs to fully participate with Washington in joint efforts to eradicate terrorist financing and root out pockets of militants abroad.
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Beyond pragmatic considerations, Sarkozy shares similar ideological underpinnings to that of the American president. Consider the following statement made by Sarkozy in Afghanistan only a few days ago:
'A part of the world's freedom is at stake here. This is where the fight against terrorism is being waged. We are not here alone against the Afghans. We are with the Afghans so as not to leave them alone in the face of barbarism.'
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These words could easily have come from the of mouth George W. Bush. Rather than rhetorical lip-service, Sarkozy authentically divides the world into civilization and 'barbarism' with Afghanistan being the epicenter of the struggle. As French forces have been increased from 1,900 to 2,600 over the last few months in the embattled nation, Sarkozy has offered more than words to NATO.
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Gordon Brown: Reluctant Warrior, Steadfast Ally
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Only hours after President Sarkozy arrived in Afghanistan to offer equal doses of solace and inspiration to French soldiers reeling from a fatal ambush of ten of their comrades-in-arms, UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown appeared to confer with Afghan President Harmid Karzai.
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Unlike his French counterpart, Brown exudes English stoicism. His comments are usually focused on tangible issues, and his meeting with Karzai was no exception. As the person most responsible for the 8,500 British regulars in Afghanistan at the request of NATO, Brown was quick to offer constructive criticism on the sluggish development of the Afghan army. Although plans call for a doubling of its size from 60,000 currently to 120,000 by 2013, recent gains by the Taliban and successful terrorist bombings by insurgents, according to Brown, suggest that both the number and the timeline are inadequate to address pressing security requirements. No one seems to disagree. Limited resources and a lack of personnel with expertise in intelligence, logistics and communications, however, will inhibit rapid advances.
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Nevertheless, Brown's visit to Kabul underscored the centrality of Afghanistan to the NATO mission of retaking a once fertile land for globally-planned terrorism.
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If Afghanistan were able to establish a monopoly on violence within its borders, the classic international relations definition of a functional nation-state, then the West would have measurable evidence of its progress in containing and diminishing actionable terror threats in the heartland of extremism.
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Although understandably antagonized by the unilateral posture of the US, Old Europe never wavered in its commitment to both NATO and Afghanistan. As both the Taliban and Al-Qaeda have both managed to reconstitute their forces over the past five years, Washington could not be more fortunate.
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J Roquen
Anniversary
From me,, originally uploaded by .noflickr
It was four years ago today, when the love of my life became my darling wife. Did you know that the traditional gift on the fourth year is fruit? Happy anniversary baby!
Why The CIA Needs History: Part One
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Hegel wrote thousands upon thousands of pages on esoteric subjects (i.e. phenomenology) and inspired the likes of Karl Marx and Jean-Paul Sartre years later. However, one of his more casual utterances has particular relevance to the current state of American foreign policy.
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After years of contemplating the course of human events, Hegel came to a eye-opening conclusion with the quip, 'What experience and history teaches us is that people and governments have never learned anything from history or acted on principles deduced from it.' In short, nations act as prisoners of the moment and fail to use history as a guide to the present and the future.
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In the preparations to launch an invasion of Iraq in 2003, what kind of analysis did the CIA director, George Tenet, furnish to President Bush with respect to the post-combat outcome? Although his exact words will never be known, the administration claimed that US forces would be greeted as liberators. For about a week, the prediction was accurate, and then Iraq degenerated into a fractured state of warring ethnic and religious groups.
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Nation-building in Iraq by the US and its coalition partners foundered due ignoring the past. A mere glance at a basic outline of Islamic and Mesopotamian history could have saved the US from its current political and military debacle.
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Faulty Premise #1: The US Will Be Greeted As Liberators
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On the surface, it seemed elementary. Iraqis under Saddam Hussein had suffered oppressive rule and a crippled economy for decades, and, as a result, most of the population would welcome and support the new order. Through an unselfish commitment to the welfare of Iraq, the administration seemed to believe that the US would be seen as a responsible superpower acting only on behalf of human rights at the other end of the globe. However noble their intentions, the Iraqis and most of the region interpreted the pre-emptive strike for democracy in the Middle East in a wholly different light. Why?
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The actions of the Western powers in the Middle East during the 20th century contain the answer.
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At the conclusion of WWI, the Ottoman Empire sank into oblivion. Turkey became an independent nation-state, and negotiations at the Paris Conference in 1919 produced a mandate system whereby the allied powers were given management responsibilities for various portions of the globe. In 1921, modern-day Iraq was born from two former Ottoman vilayets or regions - which included Basra and Baghdad. A third previous Ottoman vilayet, Mosul, was tacked on a few years later. The Hashimite Monarchy under King Faisal was installed by the British to look after the interests of the Empire.
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After a dozen years of occupation and administration, Britain allowed Iraq to become independent in 1932. It was unfortunate timing. First, Baghdad utilized its newly found sovereignty to massacre an Assyrian population within his Western-drawn borders. Secondly, Hitler came to power one year later and began leading Germany inexorably toward a revanchist (revenge) war against its WWI enemies. In order to prevent Iraqi leader, Rashid Ali al-Gaylani, from throwing his support and oil over to Berlin, British armies returned in 1941 and the refounded the Hashimite monarchy under Faisal II after a six-year occupation.
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On 14 July 1958, the Iraqi army, led by General Abdul Karim Qassim, successfully orchestrated a coup d'etat and reigned independently for five years. Another power struggle resulted in the overthrow of Qassim and the emergence of a new military leader - Abdul Salam Arif. When Arif died in 1966, his brother took the reins of power until 1979. In that year, Saddam Hussein and the Arab Socialist Baath Party ended the Arif regime.
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Why would anyone in the CIA, the State Department or anywhere else have been under the impression that US forces would be 'greeted as liberators' in 2003? Their state, whose borders were arbitrarily concocted by imperialist powers in 1919, was subordinated to British geopolitical and economic interests (oil) almost continuously from 1921-1958. No authentic elections were held. Iraq then devolved into a power struggle among its army leaders for four decades prior to the rise of Saddam Hussein in 1979. From that year onward, Saddam Hussein crushed internal opposition with brute force and plunged his nation into a war with Iran - the former ignored by the US and the latter backed by Washington as means to curb Iranian influence. Approximately 300,000 to 500,000 Iraqis died in the war.
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Due to creating and subordinating the nation of Iraq for the express purpose of serving Western interests, Iraqi hostility toward the presence of an American occupation force should have been expected by policymakers.
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Regardless of the transcendent motives to remove an egregious dictator from power and allow Iraq to finally set-up a legitimate democratic state, the collective Iraqi memories of being subordinated to Western foreign policy designs since the end of WWI could not be mollified with a flourish of presidential rhetoric from behind a desk in the White House.
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Faulty Premise #2: Iraq Is Ripe For Democracy
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While most Iraqis wanted Saddam Hussein overthrown and replaced by a new government, the 1,400-year historical resentment between the majority Shia and the minority Sunni populations should have been an inescapable indicator of post-invasion civil war. A short recitation of their often bloody rivalry, based on opposing religious claims, demonstrates the inevitability of another clash for power.
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Subsequent to the death of the Prophet Mohammad in 632AD, one of his close followers, Abu Bakr, was appointed the first Caliph to the consternation of another acolyte named Ali ibn Abi Talib - famously known as 'Ali'. As the case with most transitions of power among non-democratic states (i.e. Alexander The Great, Charlemagne, Lenin), a dispute arose over the who was the most legitimate person to succeed the founder of Islam. Indeed, the supporters of Ali's claim believed that Mohammad had actually designated him to be his successor in a place called Ghadir Khumm during the last year of his life. Rather than openly challenge Abu Bakr, Ali decided to transcend politics for the benefit of the Arabian movement. His restraint paid off. He became the fourth Caliph in 656AD. Due to not being seen as legitimate in the eyes of the disciples of Abu Bakr, however, Ali was killed five years later, and a split between followers of Abu Bakr (Sunni) and those of Ali (Shia) have divided the Muslim world to the present day.
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The Sunni-Shia struggle remained a relatively low-intensity affair until the coming of the Azeris in the 16th century. In establishing the Safavid dynasty, they ended the Sunni reign of power and remade Persia (modern day Iran) into a Shia dominated region, and it remains Shia controlled today. Nearly five centuries later in 1979, 'radical' Shia Muslims overthrew the American-installed Shah of Iran. Saddam Hussein, the brutal Sunni dictator of Iraq, opted to launch a pre-emptive war on 22 September 1980 to forestall a possible Shia-inspired, Iranian invasion to unite the majority Shia population of Iraq with Iran. Needless to say, Saddam had other, ulterior motives as well. After eight years of gruesome warfare, the conflict ended in a stalemate with more than 1 million dead in total. It should be remembered that the Reagan administration supplied Saddam with weapons and intelligence in order to prevent Iran from exporting its revolution throughout the Middle East.
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In 2003, why did war-planners forecast a relatively seamless transition for Iraq to democracy? Although the population was highly educated, similar to the Japanese and the Germans after WWII, and exhibited a desire to throw off its corrupt ruler, more than a millennium of Sunni-Shia tensions should have led policymakers to expect a Shia rebellion against their former Sunni masters. Saddam Hussein had indeed used WMD (i.e. chemical weapons) to preserve his tyrannical Sunni rule (35% of the Iraqi population) over the politically disenfranchised, far-larger Shia population (65%). Years of smouldering resentments were bound to surface at the first sight of a vacuum of power upon the fall of Saddam Hussein.
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Furthermore, why have intelligence analysts and international relations scholars been surprised at the aggressive posture of Iran in Iraq? Shia-ruled Tehran is acting quite predictably. In their view, the Sunni-government of Iraq was wholly illegitimate - a point of agreement with the US. As Iraq is composed of a preponderant number of Shia, Iran is simply claiming to be a more legitimate spokesman for their interests than either the deposed Sunni autocrats or a foreign occupation force from a non-Muslim country. Of course, this is not to excuse the sordid dimensions of Iranian foreign policy and covert operations. However, the US was blind to the belligerent undercurrents inside and external to Iraq due to its failure to study the roots of the socio-religious make-up of the territory. In all, Iraq was not ripe for democracy immediately after the fall of Saddam Hussein but ripe for internal upheaval and vulnerable to regional interference (Syria, Iran). Perhaps US General Eric Shinseki, demoted by President Bush for publicly declaring the size of the US invasion force to be inadequate just prior to the attack in 2003, understood the ramifications of sending a relatively small number of soldiers into a land where religious animosity has existed for hundreds of years. In 2007, President Bush ordered additional forces into Iraq and thus vindicated both history and the General.
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Regardless of the outcome, the Iraq war is already a travesty. If the CIA, NSA and other intelligence agencies had taken the social and religious history of Iraq and Iran into account, the campaign to remove Saddam Hussein and bring democracy to Iraq might have been carried out in a more palatable and responsible fashion.
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Timely signals intelligence, precise target information, accurate human intelligence and expert leadership analysis are essential components to defeating the many enemies of 'life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness'. When it comes to recommending war or peace to Congress and the president, however, the CIA should first call an historian.
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J Roquen
The Trouble With Hugo
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Nearly ten months ago, Hugo Chavez, the fiery, socialist leader of Venezuela, seemed chastened after losing a key plebiscite. Voters rejected his 69 proposed alternations to the constitution - including one that would have abolished the term limit on his office.
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Chavez, who had relished any opportunity to criticize the US on the world stage, became unusually reticent. While underneath the radar of the world press, however, Chavez quietly continued to pursue his radical agenda both domestically and internationally. In fact, he has played a significant role on several major fronts since the beginning of the year.
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Despite being a primary financial backer of the notorious rebel group FARC (Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia), Chavez earned acclaim early in 2008 by setting six FARC hostages free through negotiation with his armed client. Only a few months later, he reversed course and asked FARC to end its 44-year insurgency against the Colombian government and release all of its hostages. Shock waves were sent through both the hemisphere and the State Department. Why was Chavez suddenly abandoning his leverage over Colombian politics? Most likely, he calculated that continued support of the guerrillas, who often conduct operations with little consideration of the plight of civilians, would further erode his meager 37% approval rating. FARC had also become unruly and failed to achieve any political objectives from its actions on the ground.
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On the homefront, Chavez has kept up an active socialist agenda. In the first week of April, he nationalized the cement industry. According to Chavez, foreign cement producers, particularly CEMEX of Monterrey, Mexico, had been fleecing Venezuelan buyers and had continuously failed to deliver enough product. One week later, Venezuelan soldiers occupied 32 sugar plantations and confiscated the property from its private owners. The rationale behind the move was to ramp-up production of the 'idle' and misused lands by setting up collective farm units for the benefit of workers and consumers alike. As Chavez orchestrated the nationalization campaigns to re-ignite the citizens behind his agenda, he was also in the midst of reviving a propaganda campaign against the US in order to portray Venezuela, once again, not only as the victim of avaricious multinational corporations but US 'hegemony' as well.
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After being largely inactive on the international scene over the the first half of the year, Chavez began to create new waves by visiting Moscow. During his trip in late July, he signed a major business deal with Gazprom, the state-owned Russian energy company, to cooperatively drill in Venezuela. Russian armaments, helicopters and warplanes were also purchased. While no evidence exists that Putin and Chavez discussed a premeditated Russian strike against Georgia at the slightest pretext for war, the timing of Chavez' visit is a bit curious. The Venezuelan strongman immediately launched an all-out tirade, subsequent to the Russian incursion, and blamed the US and its 'puppet' government in Georgia for initiating the conflict. Shortly thereafter, he announced an upcoming trip to Beijing to deepen economic and political relations. By returning to his propagandist roots and anti-US machinations, Chavez has conspicuously returned to the world arena after a brief hiatus.
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Regardless of his loss at the polls last December, Chavez still has five years (2013) to tighten a socialist noose around his country and exercise influence around the globe.
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As the US will remain mired in Iraq and Afghanistan for the foreseeable future, Washington needs to monitor and develop a strategy to deal with an emerging Moscow-Beijing-Tehran-Caracas nexus designed to counter American efforts to promote human rights, security and free-trade. A serious, multilateral dialog with NATO members and other allies would be a logical starting point.
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J Roquen
Unclutterer
Brooklyn Office, originally uploaded by rephlektiv
My wife came to visit me at the office, so that everyone could see the baby and eat cake and give us presents. That was a fun time. Then I gave her a tour, since she had never seen where I work before, and she asked me a hard question.
"Why is your cubicle cleaner than your desk at home?"
I always maintain a clear desk at work (as recommended by Zen Habits). It eliminates visual distractions and helps me to be more focused and productive. By contrast, there's so much clutter in our home office that it stresses me out. I don't even like to spend time in that room, which means that junk keeps piling up, which causes even more anxiety.
It was clearly past time for me to do something about it, so I cleared out over half the stuff and and reorganized the room. Once that was done, I thought, "why not do this with the entire house?" And now the room is cluttered again... with piles of things to give away.
Sleeping
Exhausted, originally uploaded by akapumba
Everyone's usually asleep when I leave for work in the morning. Our pug is curled up in her basket in the corner. She looks up and rolls a little so I can scratch her belly before I go.
My wife and my daughter are lying side-by-side. As I lean in close to say goodbye, I notice the expressions on their relaxed faces. They are exactly the same.
Mostly it's the tiny mouth, hanging open in a triangle. When Ashley is awake, the eyes give her away as being half-me. When she's sleeping, with her slack cheeks and upturned nose, she looks just like a twenty-six-years-younger clone of her mother. They're so adorable that I don't want to disturb them. I just whisper, "I love you," and tiptoe out the door.
Anchoring Ankara
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As the geographical crossroads of the world, Asia Minor has drifted and absorbed competing influences around its borders throughout history. After the Russian invasion of Georgia, however, Ankara can no longer afford to practice an often ambiguous and inconsistent foreign policy. It must decide between East and West, NATO and non-aligned, and pro-democracy and semi-authoritarian. Rather than President Sarkozy of France, the Turkish Prime Minister Recep Erdogan, should have been the primary catalyst for promoting a cease-fire agreement between the combatants. Why? Aside from physically adjoining Georgia, Ankara is obligated to take diplomatic action to buttress its security and protect its commerce in the region.
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A stable Georgia is vital to the Turkish economy. Several dozen businesses operate in Georgia and account for more than $600 billion of investment, and approximately $400 million worth of exported goods travels on Georgian roads to Azerbaijan. More importantly, the Baku (Azerbaijan), Tbilisi (Georgia) and Ceyhan (Turkey) pipeline (BTC) is responsible for transporting nearly 1 million barrels of oil per day - or 1% of the world's oil - from the Caspian Sea. Additional military maneuvers, authorized by Putin and his puppet (Medvedev), could subordinate the states of the Caucasus to Russian interests. As Russia holds the distinction of being the most lucrative market for Turkey (a record $28 billion exchanged between the countries last year), an erosion of real sovereignty in Georgia and other surrounding nations would make Turkey even more beholden to Moscow both economically and politically.
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As the bloodshed continued day after day, Ankara, by its deafening silence, appeared more rudderless than in previous crises. When President Bush decided to launch an invasion of Iraq despite throngs of protests to wait for the arms inspectors to complete their investigations, for example, Turkey, a NATO ally and neighbor of Iraq, boldly rejected Pentagon requests to allow the US military to fly over Turkish airspace to attack the Saddam Hussein regime from the skies. Although its defiance of Washington rankled the White House and fractured NATO, the decisive action by Ankara proved true to its pragmatic security interests. Another Persian Gulf War would only create a large crop of refugees asking Ankara for asylum and raise the spectre of Kurdish independence once again at the expense of Turkish territory - an anathema to the modern disciples of Kemal Ataturk. Where is their foreign policy decisiveness now?
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Turkey might believe itself to be at a regional impasse at the moment. If Erdogan were to denounce the Russian action, his country might face damaging economic reprisals - i.e. Gazprom, the Russian state-owned supplier of natural gas to much of the Caucasus and parts of Eastern Europe (current President Dmitri Medvedev was its Chairman prior to being elected to office), might threaten to turn off the spigot in the dead of winter. Memories of Georgia suffering through the winter of 2001 from the economic machinations of Gazprom and its political masters in Moscow still loom among all governments in the region. As Turkey relies on Gazprom for more than three-quarters of its natural gas, a protracted suspension would be devastating.
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On the other hand, Erdogan should not bow to potential Russian coercive tactics. The BTC pipeline, built in 2005, has been an unqualified success in reducing regional dependence on Russian produced oil and has cemented Ankara, Tbilisi and Baku together into a cohesive bloc of independent states with shared security interests. Moreover, it is inconceivable that Turkey would condone the Russian invasion of Georgia on the premise of 'liberating' South Ossetia and Abkhazia from Georgian 'hegemony'. If Turkey were to support self-determination for the two separatist areas, then its own heavy-handed policy against Kurdish statehood would be wholly undermined.
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Prime Minister Erdogan is now in the process of ending a diplomatic jaunt through Moscow and Tbilisi. He is at least one-step behind. The future of his nation lies in diversified economic and political relations with both the East and the West. If Turkey truly desires to be an active partner of NATO and a future member of the European Union, then Ankara must now drop anchor into the seas of democracy and the rule of law through earnest diplomatic initiatives on behalf of the region and the world.
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J Roquen
Baby's first road trip
thailand-25, originally uploaded by Klas Öjebo
Last Friday we packed the entire family into the car--parents, dog & baby--and drove out to my parent's lake home for the weekend. The drive there took about 3 hours. Our return trip was longer because of a vehicle fire on the side of the freeway that held up traffic for miles.
Remarkably, in over 6 hours of driving, we never had to pull over on account of the baby (although we did take advantage of an A&W pit stop to change her diaper once). My wife sat with her in the back seat and fed her from a bottle when she got hungry. Otherwise she was either napping or sitting quietly.
Our baby was such a trooper, all our fears were unfounded. She even seemed to enjoy being at the lake; her favorite activity was staring at the ceiling fan. Our first vacation was a success! I look forward to many more.
Growing pains
At home in the pumpkin patch, originally uploaded by John Carleton
My baby keeps getting bigger. Is this normal?
If she continues to grow at this rate, soon she will not be a baby anymore. She's going to turn into a little person. I'm not ready for that yet. I want to keep her on the vine just a little bit longer.
A Revival of French Diplomacy
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While President Bush issued a rather meek call for an end to hostilities, Secretary Rice did not assign one of her ranking subordinates to negotiate an end to the hostilities. The American response to the crisis was limited to a few public comments and private phone calls to foreign capitals.
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Simultaneous to the muted reaction by Washington, a scene from yesteryear appeared in newspapers and on video screens around the world. Nicolas Sarkozy, the current French President known as much for his obstinacy as for his pro-American tilt, made an unlikely peacemaker in the Russo-Georgian conflict.
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In the English-speaking 21st century, his shuttle diplomacy between Moscow (see picture with President Dmitri Medvedev) and Tbilisi hearkened back to the 19th century in which French modes of statecraft and the French-tongue dominated negotiations between states. Although far from attaining the heights of his renowned predecessors, Mazarin and Vergennes, Sarkozy managed to impress more than a few critics by halting the conflict with a flexible five-point plan acceptable to both combatants.
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Did Sarkozy merely act out of obligation due to being the current EU President? The answer is not entirely clear. However, Sarkozy did dispel a widely-held notion held by many American statesmen - and one repeated by Richard Holbrooke yesterday on CNN. If the United States does not lead the world, the former Ambassador essentially said, then no one will lead. Although true in several past instances (but by no means all), the French President was the only head of state to take immediate action and produce more than empty rhetoric.
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In a post-unilateral world, the diplomatic initiative by Sarkozy bodes well for a new era in constructive, multilateral engagement.
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J Roquen
John Edwards: Disciple Of Thomas Jefferson
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It all began at his alma mater. At The College of William & Mary, Jefferson fell in love with a young woman by the name of Rebecca Burwell. When his feelings were not reciprocated, he was immediately overtaken by one of his famous, lifelong migraines. It would not be the last time a headache would result from a heartache.
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At some point in his young adult years, Jefferson made an indiscreet, romantic overture to a married woman near his residence in Virginia. Due to her mature non-response, thereby allowing the matter to drop, Jefferson was able to avoid a damaged reputation.
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Years later in 1772, Jefferson took Martha Wayles Skelton, a widow, as his bride. After having several children together, Martha died only ten years into their blissful marriage. Overwrought with grief, Jefferson subsequently decided to leave his beloved Virginia for an ambassadorship to France in order to begin life anew.
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Paris possessed all of Jefferson's passions - books, politics, classical architecture, gourmet food - and beautiful women. It was a perfect remedy for an anguished, heartbroken man.
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Rather than become attracted to one of the many high-society, eligible French belles, Jefferson was instantly smitten with the wife an English painter. Maria Cosway, a 27 year-old, elegant young woman with all the refinements of a genuine European lady, became the object of all of his attention. After several carriage rides and long, flirtatious walks, she gravitated to the 43 year-old American. Coquettish letters were exchanged, and Jefferson entered into a period of intense emotional conflict. As a result of his swirling passions, he wrote a unique love-letter, never posted, in the form of a dialogue between his 'head' (reason) and his 'heart' (passion) sometime in 1786. Although historians cannot verify whether or not Jefferson and Cosway had an illicit affair, several lines in his letters, which appear to be metaphorical, seem to indicate that the relationship contained at least some physical affection. Unquestionably, the depth of their 'friendship' was purposely concealed from her husband.
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If that were all, one might already judge John Edwards as being a relative lightweight in contrast to Jefferson's amorous affinity for betrothed women. However, his alleged, crowning romantic escapade, wholly out of convention in both America and the South, is still causing controversy in historical journals today.
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James T. Callender, a frustrated muckraking journalist (he would have had quite a career for the National Enquirer) who had been denied a position in the Jefferson administration, vengefully published allegations that the sitting president had been having an affair with one of his mulatto slaves by the name of Sally Hemings. Furthermore, several of her children, he wrote, had been sired by Jefferson. Outside of the then unspeakable thought of a president having sexual relations with a black slave, Callender used the word 'concubine' to add another sordid dimension to the tale. Hence, he was reporting that Jefferson had forced his young, female chattel slave into a carnal relationship against her will. Was it true? Similar to Edwards, Jefferson denied the charge, albeit indirectly, in a letter three years later.
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Two centuries later, in 1998, DNA testing technology was employed to render a final verdict on the veracity of the claim, and the results shocked Jefferson scholars. According to the scientists, Jefferson had most likely been the father of at least one of Sally Hemings' children. As to whether the relationship was coercive (i.e. master-slave) or consensual, the full story of Thomas Jefferson and Sally Hemings has been buried in their graves. Two pieces of circumstantial evidence seem to add a bit of weight to the conclusions of the DNA team: 1) Jefferson and Hemings were together nine months prior to the birth of each of her children and 2) In his will, Jefferson only freed the Hemings family from slavery.
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Despite his occasional salacious behavior, Thomas Jefferson not only ranks as one of the best presidents among historians but continues to be one of the most popular and beloved figures in American and world history. His unsurpassed rhetoric of 'life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness' has inspired millions of people, including Abraham Lincoln, to make sacrifices for the cause of freedom around the world.
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History has indeed forgiven Jefferson for his human foibles, none of which were seemingly malicious in intent, in light of his significant contribution to civilization. As John Edwards has devoted his career to addressing and ending poverty in America, his legacy, regardless of engaging in 'Jeffersonian' indiscretions, will likely fare quite well among future generations.
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Ultimately, it should be recalled that Jefferson famously wrote 'All men are created equal' - not 'perfect'.
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J Roquen
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Jefferson's 'Head and Heart' letter concerning Maria Cosway may be read at the following link:
http://www.pbs.org/jefferson/archives/documents/ih195811.htm
A Case Of Russian Irredentism
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The escalating conflict in the Caucasus is merely an extension of a multidimensional proxy war between Russia and Georgia since the independence of the latter, and it is a case of Russian irrendentism - a policy based on a nationalist ideology to retrieve lost territory.
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As Georgia gravitated toward the West to enhance its security as a nation-state in the 1990s, Russia employed various tools of coercive statecraft in a thinly-veiled attempt to undermine the burgeoning democratic regime. After the conversion of the former Warsaw Pact to NATO allies and/or NATO friendly states, Moscow was antagonized by the rapid advancement of Western European and American interests in its backyard. As a result, the Russian government developed a strategy to counter NATO-led influence in the Caucasus in order to maintain its presence in Central Asian affairs.
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Since Georgia capitulated under Russian threats to allow Moscow to operate military bases inside its borders more than a decade ago, Russia has covertly funneled weapons and provided logistical support to separatist movements in South Ossetia and Abkhazia for the purpose of weakening the Georgian regime. Hence, the Russian response to the recent attempt by Tbilisi to crush the rebellions in the Northern Caucasus mountains should have been anticipated. If Russia had allowed the Georgian military to effectively subdue South Ossetia and Abkhazia, then it would have lost its primary leverage over Georgian foreign policy. Indeed, NATO may have passed Georgia over for admission recently to avoid inheriting an unstable, ethnically fractured state. On that point, Russia can claim a foreign policy victory.
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Moscow claims the Georgian raid on South Ossetia was the initial provocation, and Russia is simply exercising its right to self-defense. This is not only patently false but also pure propaganda. While a few Russian peacekeepers were likely killed or injured by Georgian forces inadvertently last week, Putin clearly used the skirmish as a pretext to launch an all-out invasion of Georgia with troops, warplanes and ballistic missiles. While the President of Georgia has withdrawn all of his forces from South Ossetia and signed an EU ceasefire agreement, Moscow has balked at any peace proposals. Why? Putin and his figurehead president, Dmitri Medvedev, have calculated ambitions to rollback Western influence and re-establish Russian political and economic dominance in the region.
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The United States, Europe and the United Nations must take a pragmatic yet firm stance on the latest round of unprovoked aggression. Thousands of civilians now lie dead as a result of years of ignoring the rise of Russian nationalism and related militarist posturing. If its irrendentism remains unchecked, Russia will continue to conduct a foreign policy outside the parameters of international law.
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J Roquen
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For an update on the Russo-Georgian War, see the following BBC link:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7554507.stm