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In a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Beijing today, the site of the 2008 Olympics, US President George Bush must have been at least somewhat taken aback by news that 150 Russian tanks had crossed into South Ossetia in the Republic of Georgia.
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In an area brimming with ethnic conflicts, rekindled after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, a war between Russians, Georgians and Ossetians in the heart of the Caucasus mountains has the potential to engulf the entire region into a protracted and deadly conflict.
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Tensions between Russia and Georgia - and Georgia and South Ossetia - have been palpable since Georgia declared its independence from the former Soviet Union on 9 April 1991.
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Tbilisi, the capital of Georgia, set-up its government in the early 1990s under constant threat from Moscow. Its first challenge was to quell an independence movement by the Ossentians, an ethnically and culturally distinct minority within the new Georgian borders, and build a coherent state structure. When diplomacy failed, the leaders of South Ossetia resorted to armed struggle to gain autonomy, and their subsequent defeat on the field of battle resulted in about 1,000 dead and an Ossetian exodus of 100,000 to North Ossetia and other parts of Georgia. A fragile cease-fire, brokered by Moscow, followed.
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Since the fall of the Soviet Union, Russia has never fully accepted the independence of Georgia, and Georgia has never acknowledged the aspirations of South Ossetia for self-determination. Beyond rival claims of territory and parochial campaigns for political rights, however, the principle catalyst behind the violence stems from the pro-Western tilt of Georgia. During its drive to becoming a nation-state, Georgia successfully latched onto European and American diplomatic overtures to ward off a possible Soviet military invasion similar to the ones in Hungary in 1956 and Czechoslovakia in 1968. Ever since the recalcitrant Georgian republic escaped from the Russian orbit, Moscow has been reported to have actively supplied various rebel groups, including the Ademon Nykhas or the Ossentian Popular Front, with weapons to destabilize Georgia as a measure of revenge and retaliation for its independence. Furthermore, talks between Tbilisi and NATO ministers on the prospects of Georgia joining NATO in some capacity (Russia's arch-enemy in the Cold War) over the last few months have antagonized Moscow. A pro-NATO state on the Russian border is simply unthinkable to ex-KGB agent and current Russian President Vladimir Putin - and a perceived slap in the face to an increasingly powerful and assertive Russia.
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In short, a low-intensity, proxy war between Russia and Georgia has been waged in South Ossetia, but the latest incursion of 150 Russian tanks to the capital of South Ossetia, Tskhinvali, represents a dramatic escalation in the fighting. While Georgia cites Russian provocations, Russia and South Ossetian leaders cast blame on Tbilisi.
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Whatever the case, peacekeeping operations in the northern Caucasus, partly staffed by Russian troops to prevent further conflict between Ossentian nationalists and Georgia, may break-down as foreign-fighters from nearby separatist areas flock to the Ossentian cause.
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As Russian warplanes fly over South Ossetia, the United States, Europe and the UN need to quickly reassess the history and politics of the region and call for a diplomatic summit between Dmitry Medvedev (President of Russia), Mikhail Saakavili (President of Georgia), Jaap de Hoop Scheffer (Secretary-General of NATO), a representative of South Ossetia and other world leaders to establish the political framework necessary for a normalization of relations between Russia and Georgia. Furthermore, the status of South Ossetia needs to be discussed in relation to its referendum of 2006 whereby 98% voted for independence.
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As long as these disputes remain outside the realm of regional and international diplomacy, more war and suffering can be expected in the Caucasus.
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J Roquen
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For an update on the Russian invasion of South Ossetia, see the following BBC News link:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7548715.stm