To the question: 'Is Turkey part of Europe, the Middle East or Asia?' - a Turk would probably simply answer 'Yes' - and be correct..
As the geographical crossroads of the world, Asia Minor has drifted and absorbed competing influences around its borders throughout history. After the Russian invasion of Georgia, however, Ankara can no longer afford to practice an often ambiguous and inconsistent foreign policy. It must decide between East and West, NATO and non-aligned, and pro-democracy and semi-authoritarian. Rather than President Sarkozy of France, the Turkish Prime Minister Recep Erdogan, should have been the primary catalyst for promoting a cease-fire agreement between the combatants. Why? Aside from physically adjoining Georgia, Ankara is obligated to take diplomatic action to buttress its security and protect its commerce in the region.
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A stable Georgia is vital to the Turkish economy. Several dozen businesses operate in Georgia and account for more than $600 billion of investment, and approximately $400 million worth of exported goods travels on Georgian roads to Azerbaijan. More importantly, the Baku (Azerbaijan), Tbilisi (Georgia) and Ceyhan (Turkey) pipeline (BTC) is responsible for transporting nearly 1 million barrels of oil per day - or 1% of the world's oil - from the Caspian Sea. Additional military maneuvers, authorized by Putin and his puppet (Medvedev), could subordinate the states of the Caucasus to Russian interests. As Russia holds the distinction of being the most lucrative market for Turkey (a record $28 billion exchanged between the countries last year), an erosion of real sovereignty in Georgia and other surrounding nations would make Turkey even more beholden to Moscow both economically and politically.
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As the bloodshed continued day after day, Ankara, by its deafening silence, appeared more rudderless than in previous crises. When President Bush decided to launch an invasion of Iraq despite throngs of protests to wait for the arms inspectors to complete their investigations, for example, Turkey, a NATO ally and neighbor of Iraq, boldly rejected Pentagon requests to allow the US military to fly over Turkish airspace to attack the Saddam Hussein regime from the skies. Although its defiance of Washington rankled the White House and fractured NATO, the decisive action by Ankara proved true to its pragmatic security interests. Another Persian Gulf War would only create a large crop of refugees asking Ankara for asylum and raise the spectre of Kurdish independence once again at the expense of Turkish territory - an anathema to the modern disciples of Kemal Ataturk. Where is their foreign policy decisiveness now?
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Turkey might believe itself to be at a regional impasse at the moment. If Erdogan were to denounce the Russian action, his country might face damaging economic reprisals - i.e. Gazprom, the Russian state-owned supplier of natural gas to much of the Caucasus and parts of Eastern Europe (current President Dmitri Medvedev was its Chairman prior to being elected to office), might threaten to turn off the spigot in the dead of winter. Memories of Georgia suffering through the winter of 2001 from the economic machinations of Gazprom and its political masters in Moscow still loom among all governments in the region. As Turkey relies on Gazprom for more than three-quarters of its natural gas, a protracted suspension would be devastating.
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On the other hand, Erdogan should not bow to potential Russian coercive tactics. The BTC pipeline, built in 2005, has been an unqualified success in reducing regional dependence on Russian produced oil and has cemented Ankara, Tbilisi and Baku together into a cohesive bloc of independent states with shared security interests. Moreover, it is inconceivable that Turkey would condone the Russian invasion of Georgia on the premise of 'liberating' South Ossetia and Abkhazia from Georgian 'hegemony'. If Turkey were to support self-determination for the two separatist areas, then its own heavy-handed policy against Kurdish statehood would be wholly undermined.
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Prime Minister Erdogan is now in the process of ending a diplomatic jaunt through Moscow and Tbilisi. He is at least one-step behind. The future of his nation lies in diversified economic and political relations with both the East and the West. If Turkey truly desires to be an active partner of NATO and a future member of the European Union, then Ankara must now drop anchor into the seas of democracy and the rule of law through earnest diplomatic initiatives on behalf of the region and the world.
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J Roquen