Natural disasters can be studied from a variety of perspectives. Of course, the first angle is either meteorological or geological. What natural forces were responsible for the event - a shift in a weather pattern or plate tectonics perhaps? Along with scientific study, a sociological component exists as well. In analyzing the event, the initial and most immediate question to be asked is 'Could it have been prevented?' Then, its short and long term effects must be ascertained on the effected population. More than a few leaders and governments have fallen from failing to render enough assistance to their distressed citizens..
Prior to examining the current natural disasters in India, Japan and the one now effecting the Caribbean and the United States, a review of 'The Johnstown Flood' of 1889 (Pennsylvania, USA) will illustrate how nature and the detrimental actions of man can create tragedy.
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At 3:10pm on 31 May 1889, disaster stuck Johnstown, Pennsylvania. The South Fork Dam, which had been completed in 1853 after 15 years of construction buckled. In just a few minutes, 20 million tons of water in a giant wave 40 feet high and six blocks wide drowned the entire area. After being deluged by a force equal to Niagara Falls, 2,209 people perished including 124 women and 396 children. Today, a museum stands on the site as a memorial to the victims.
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Sadly, no one had to die. In the Gilded Age, wealthy tycoons wielded the greatest power in society, and Pennsylvania was no exception. Henry Clay Frick, a disciple of the steel magnate Andrew Carnegie, decided to pool a portion of his extensive financial resources with other investors to create the South Fork Fishing and Hunting Club. In order to build the retreat, a plan was hatched to lower the South Fork Dam for the purpose of constructing a road to allow automobile access for its exclusive members. As leaks occurred from years of inattention, cracks in the facade of the dam were often repaired - not with cement - but with straw and mud.
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When a heavy thunderstorm began producing excessive amounts of rainfall in late May of that year (1889), the dam, which had been altered to provide for the pleasures of the rich and powerful and never properly maintained, gave way. The 2,209 victims were anything but privileged. They were nearly all middle or lower class Americans. Who opened the flood gates? In this case, 'an act of God' and a corrupt elite.
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Japan and India, 31 August 2008
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The social and political ramifications of the recent floods in Japan and India, which occurred in the last few days, will require time to assess. While approximately 500,000 people were evacuated to safety from areas in central Japan subsequent to a storm that generated nearly 6 inches of rain in a single hour, floods in Northeastern India (Bihar) have sent 1 million people to relief camps, left 300,000 stranded, more than half a million homeless and nearly 3 million displaced. As food and supplies have been held up due to inclement weather, starvation, dehydration, an outbreak of disease and social unrest remain distinct possibilities over the next few days. Fortunately, only 1 person is known to have died in Japan while fewer than 30 have lost their lives in India thus far.
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New Orleans, USA - Hurricane Gustav (1 September 2008)
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At this time, weather forecasters are predicting landfall for Hurricane Gustav will occur early Monday morning (tomorrow, 1 September) with a Category 3 impact (120mph). Hundreds of thousand of people on the Gulf coast states of Louisiana and Mississippi are in the process of evacuating northward. Unless a dramatic reversal of fortune occurs, New Orleans will be directly hit by a major storm only three years after Hurricane Katrina in 2005. The bungled response to Katrina revealed the US government to be at least partially disorganized and ineffectual in handling the human crisis as 1,800 people died. Thirty-six months later, the city of New Orleans and the federal government appear to be far more prepared and coordinated.
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Unlike Johnstown, the natural disasters in Japan, India and America may have a common link. Many scientists attribute the increasing number of severe weather patterns to the effects of climate change. As the rise in the earth's temperature has been equated to the high levels of carbon dioxide in the air, the question 'Who opened the flood gates?' can be answered quite easily in the 21st century. It is 'man'. If people and the nations of the world do not adequately address the crisis of global warming and fail to replace fossil fuels with environmentally-friendly alternatives, then humankind will eventually pass through the flood gates of existence.
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For a truly engaging narrative of the 1889 deluge in Pennsylavnia, the book, The Johnstown Flood (1968) by David McCullough is highly recommended.
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J Roquen