Eighteen years since the opening salvo of the Persian Gulf War (2 August 1990), Iraq is still in a state of volatile fluidity.
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Due to the 'Sunni Awakening', the collective decision by Sunni leaders to fight Al-Qaeda rather than continue to ally with their forces, and the surge strategy ably conducted by US General David Petraeus, conditions in Iraq have improved significantly. Both civilian and American troop casualties have fallen dramatically in recent months.
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Despite palpable progress, the next US president will inherit an unstable Iraq in an unstable region of the world.
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As the presumptive US presidential nominees (John McCain and Barack Obama) debate the timing and number of American troops to be withdrawn, foreign policy experts in both campaigns need to establish contingency plans to deal with several potential crises that could fracture the fragile nation permanently. Indeed, Iraq still faces the prospect of disintegration and anarchy from various forces inside and external to its borders.
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The Iraqi Army: The US cannot economically or politically afford to retain 140,000 troops in Iraq indefinitely. Hence, the ability of US and Iraqi commanders to create a self-sustaining Iraqi Army is pivotal. After more than five years, however, time and patience is running out. In order to meet the objective of having 13 fully-functional Iraqi divisions, as announced in March (2008), a massive new effort to train Iraqi recruits in logistics, intelligence and combat will need to be launched immediately in order to make at least a partial withdrawal of US forces possible in the near future. If Iraqis cannot secure their own country in due time, the continued ability of extremist groups to thrive will eventually erode the legitimacy of government in Baghdad.
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The Infrastructure: Between the US-led invasion (20 March 2003), the destruction from the sporadic Sunni-Shia civil war and the calculated bombings undertaken by Al-Qaeda in Iraq, the woeful state of the Iraqi infrastructure poses a significant threat to long-term social stability. While the amount of electricity fails to supply less than 50% of demand, drinkable water is only available to 1 out of every 3 Iraqis. Furthermore, less than 1 out of 5 citizens has access to a modern sewage system. Similar to the poor in India, many Iraqis resort to disposing waste materials in the rivers. A lack of power generation will continue to put a damper on the economy and alienate large numbers of the population. Poor sanitation could lead to an outbreak of one of many fatal diseases - throwing the nation into a bevy of protests, riots, scapegoating and internal conflict.
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Syria: Although improved, Damascus still has not been wholly cooperative in preventing Sunni zealots from crossing over its eastern border with Iraq and attacking Shia and Shia holy sites in order to foment another round of civil war. In order to stem the flow of foreign fighters from Syria, the US has recently flown its aircraft around and inside the Syrian border to monitor the movements of transient Sunni insurgents. Beneath the veneer of constructive engagement, tensions are quite high between US and Syrian forces. A rash move by either army might lead to open warfare.
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Iran: On 2 March 2008, Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad courted Iraqi leaders in Baghdad for two days. The high profile, red-carpet visit revealed the extent of Iran's influence in Iraq. Iran, a sponsor of the radical Shia cleric Moqtada al-Sadr and his Mahdi army, has all but openly distributed arms and logistical support to the both the Mahdi army and other extremists organizations with the objective destabilizing Iraq by interrupting the rebuilding process of the Iraqi army through roadside bombs, suicide bombers and brazen militia attacks. US forces are one of their prime targets, and they have succeeded in killing a significant number of American soldiers. John McCain or Barack Obama will have to devise a nuanced 'carrot and stick' approach to Iran to forestall a larger conflict and accommodate their mutual interests in the region.
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The Economy: The visit by Ahmadinejad five months ago signified more than a routine exchange of diplomatic pleasantries. It was a concrete reflection of their shared Shia and economic ties. Trade between Iraq and Iran has exploded from $1 billion just two years ago to $4 billion today. This gives Ahmadinejad considerable leverage in the international arena. As the UN deliberates on a new round of sanctions on Iran for failing to disclose information on its nuclear program, Iran could conceivably retaliate by imposing its own sanctions on Iraq. While both economies would suffer, a divestment of $2-4 billion from the Iraqi economy would be catastrophic. Internal unrest would be sure to follow with dangerous potential consequences. On another side of the equation, investment by Iran, while welcomed, has contributed to its formidable 12.4% inflation rate (June). If wages are allowed to lag far behind the costs of consumer goods, Iraqis may rebel and rock the government.
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Corruption: Malfeasance is a cornerstone of the Iraqi government. Reports indicate that virtually every ministry has been corrupted by pilfering, waste and/or profiteering. Judge Radhi al Rahdi, appointed to launch investigations into the widespread corruption of the government, saw 31 of his staff members assassinated to end his campaign for justice. Rahdi has since fled to the US, and the Iraqi government has only moved to protect its unscrupulous ministers from any further questioning. After a directive issued by Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, the Commission on Public Integrity can no longer investigate any minister of government without his or her consent. As a result, Maliki has not only consolidated his power at the expense of the public trust but also ensured that his government is accountable only to itself. As more than $1 billion disappeared from the Ministry of Defense alone (largely US taxpayer money), can any form of democracy be equated with the current government of Iraq? If the populace fails to receive any benefits from its government (i.e. improved sanitation, electricity etc.) and perceives its leaders to be as self-serving as Robert Mugabe in Zimbabwe or Omar Hasan al-Bashir of Sudan, a revolution from below may occur and turn into years of political strife.
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The current picture of Iraq is incredibly complicated, but a desired outcome is still possible with an artful employment of diplomacy and force. Stability in Iraq can only be achieved with a realistic, comprehensive policy that addresses every internal and external threat to its capacity to govern justly.
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J Roquen