After the European Revolutions of 1848, Tsar Nicholas I composed a letter to his counterpart in Britain. Surveying the new political landscape of Europe, he wrote Queen Victoria, 'What remains standing in Europe? Great Britain and Russia.' In a sudden flash, the elites had been overthrown by a Continental-wide uprising that transcended physical, national and ethnic boundaries. It was a truly humbling moment for the old order..
Could a similar fate be headed for European elites in the near future? In the minds of most people, there exists a latent, optimistic tendency to believe that worst-case scenarios will be precluded one way or the other. Certainly, the leaders of Europe have now had quite a bit of experience in cobbling together various stop-gap measures to stanch the bleeding of EU finances. Yet for all the dealmaking, compromises and economic restructuring, the crisis has only deepened. While 2012 may not be 1848, it may turn out to be 1847. The parallels are disturbingly striking.
.
Europe In 1847: Economic Antecedents to Collapse
.
Every crisis has roots, and the Revolutions of 1848 are no exception. In fact, its economic roots are both literal and figurative. Beginning in 1845, Europe experienced a series of agricultural failures. Diminished yields of grain in Britain, France and elsewhere on the Continent, along with the devastating demise of the Irish potato crop a year later (which would drive thousands of malnourished Irish to America), resulted in a significant rise in food costs. As bread - the staple of European life - became more unaffordable for the lower classes, rumblings of unrest became palpable.
.
Beyond the baleful effects for much of the populace, particularly the impecunious, the agricultural crisis bankrupted farmers and served to undermine the European-wide financial system. France, whose firms were losing ground due to falling prices from overproduction, simply could not absorb a downturn in two sectors of its economy. As one business folded after another, unemployment rose significantly.
.
Europe in 1847: Political Antecedents to Collapse
.
From Paris to Rome and on to Vienna, discontent with the elites stemmed from their inability to halt the economic decline, relieve the increasing misery of the masses and expand political representation.
.
Prime Minister Francois Guizot (1787-1874), who had become a hero to Frenchmen for his courageous stand against the royal prerogatives of King Charles X, seemed to be living up to his famous quote 'Not to be a republican at 20 (years old) is proof of want of heart, to be one at 30 is proof of want of head.' Indeed, Guizot manipulated French politics toward his own ends and all but ignored the grim economic plight of his countrymen.
.
To the East, the German states remained unable to attain any semblance of unity while larger numbers of peasants and craft-workers sank into destitution.
.
In Italy and over the lands of the old Habsburg monarchy, the tides of nationalism swept over each political entity with passionate calls for complete unification in the former and ethnic 'self-determination' in the latter. Both aspirations went unfulfilled.
.
Europe: 1847 and 2012
.
As events on the Continent unfold, Europe seems to be headed for the same historical ground as 1847. In terms of economy, European businesses face a highly competitive environment amid the prospects of a significant fall-off in consumer spending. According to the best estimates, projected growth in the Euro-zone in 2012 will be a languid 0.5%. The unemployment rate, which currently stands at 9.9% in France, 5.9% in Germany, 12.5% in Portugal and 22.6% in Spain, will only increase if a double-dip recession - which many economists are now predicting - occurs over the next year.
.
Similar to the chain reaction sparked by overproduction and the agricultural crisis of 1847, EU nations still struggling with high state debt and low market demand have created a systemic financial crisis. Due to the scale of their insolvency, neither Portugal, Ireland nor Greece can afford to borrow more money as prohibitive interest rates have been set by private lenders. Why loan money to a government with potentially few prospects of paying back the amount on time, late or at all?
.
Italy, which has 360 billion Euros (or US$500 billion) of debt to reschedule in 2012, may not receive terms from its creditors. If Rome defaults, panic will set in and interest rates on the state debts of other EU nations may rise - causing a vicious cycle of fear and financial collapse.
.
From these monetary crises, the institutional flaws and political fragility of the EU system have been exposed. The European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF), which exists to shore up governments strapped for cash, simply does not have resources available to repair the financial damage across the Continent. As such, Germany has had to underwrite the debt of several EU nations in order to save both Europe and itself from a crash, and Greek leaders have reluctantly agreed to austerity measures in a program to achieve fiscal soundness.
.
These temporary solutions have placed the EU on the same politically precarious path as 1847 Europe. By governing from the top-down rather than from the bottom-up and asking financially struggling workers to bear the burden of a financial morass that they neither asked for nor created, EU leaders in Brussels have raised intractable questions of sovereignty and legitimacy that may provoke wider stirrings of discontent in 2012 - on par with 1847.
.
Avoiding 1848 in 2013
.
In order to prevent 2013 from becoming a second coming of 1848 with mass unrest and long-term political fracture, EU leaders and European heads of state must begin governing according to the welfare of the people rather than attempting to fix the economic and financial crises through policy decisions devoid of empathy and consideration for the very element that makes Europe possible - its democratic participants known as citizens.
.
Visionaries wanted. Old elites and technocrats need not apply.
.
Key Source
.
Charles Breunig, The Age of Revolution and Reaction, 1789-1850 (New York: WW Norton, 1977), 252-253.
.
(Image: A five-franc coin issued in 1847 under the French monarchy of King Louis Phillipe. He was deposed in February 1848 after a financial meltdown and the political ineptitude demonstrated by his government)
.
J Roquen