As President Obama conversed with his Chinese counterpart this week, one subject was likely not on their agenda - the slow demise of East Asia..
Japan, once America's principle ally in the region, has been quagmired in economic stagnation for two decades. Similar to Western countries, it has also ceded its once powerful manufacturing sector to China. As a result, Tokyo continues to leverage more and more debt to cover the costs of its welfare state. Two symbiotic factors ensure that Japan will not return to the 'Land of the Rising Sun' anytime soon. First, it possesses the oldest population in the world. Twenty-three percent of its people are age 65 and over. By 2050, it will be 40%. Japan's low birth rate and refusal to allow a meaningful number of immigrants into the country do not bode well for a solution. In the absence of a large, relatively youthful middle-class, Japan will sink into further debt. Its currency will weaken, and it stands to become the next Greece or Iceland.
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Korea is in much the same situation with an aging population and an overall declining economy due to being eclipsed by its mainland rival.
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This is the consequence of the decision of US policymakers to align its future with China - a nation that supported the government of Sudan in its genocidal campaign in Darfur for the purpose of acquiring its oil, a nation that holds thousands of political prisoners for refusing to waive their human right to free speech, and a nation that has done little if anything to restrain North Korea - its client - from conducting low-intensity warfare against South Korea.
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In 2012, the presidential debate should include the question, 'How do you plan to support Japan and South Korea as China continues to exert more influence in the region?' The attempted answers will surely be interesting.
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(Picture: Sunset on Tokyo Tower, Tokyo, Japan)
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J Roquen