Among many Nigerian youth, there was a popular expression a few years back and one still uttered today, "If you can survive Nigeria, you can survive anywhere." In the April 2011 election of Goodluck Jonathan (b. 1957), Nigerians, who gave him an incredible mandate with more than 77% of the vote, thought they had found their 'Obama' - an educated, articulate and compassionate leader capable of restructuring the entire system. When Jonathan cut the government fuel subsidy on 1 January 2012 over the objections of 80% of the population, it was a well-meaning yet completely misguided attempt to bring order to a nation run largely (but not completely) by an absence of the rule of law. In order to understand the mindset of the government in repealing the fuel subsidy - a lifeline to most Nigerians who make $2 of less per day, the question "Who runs Nigeria?" needs to be answered..
There are essentially three kinds of developed states in the world: 1) nations that control their economies to a large extent for the benefit of their people (Sweden, Saudi Arabia etc.), 2) nations that control about half of their economies and allow the other half to take a market-driven course (Canada, Japan) and 3) nations that control a limited part of their economy and allow markets to drive most of their economic life (United States). In the case of developing Nigeria, its leaders are probably aiming to shape the economy along the lines of Canada and Japan, but a domestic and international contest over the most traded commodity in the world - oil - has been both the principal source of wealth and the principle source of misery to Nigerians for decades.
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Money for Nothing, And Gas for Free (almost)
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1960 was the biggest year for Africa in the twentieth century. Seventeen African nations threw off the yoke of colonialism and hoped for a brighter future. Nigeria was one of those newly independent countries.
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Are you ready for a staggering statistic? Brace yourself.
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Over the last half century, Nigeria has earned approximately $400 billion in oil revenue. Of that $400 billion, more than $380 billion has been either squandered or pocketed by members of the government.
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In comparison, the amount of money Nigeria receives from international aid in one form or another amounts to one-tenth of its oil revenue.
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Rather than building schools, designing a dynamic infrastructure suited to enhance business, improving health care and handing out university scholarships to promising high school students, nearly all the revenue earned from oil has gone into the bank accounts of corrupt politicians and unscrupulous businessmen. A former governor of Rivers State, where Jonathan received his doctorate in zoology at the University of Port Harcourt, was reported to have siphoned off $1 billion in oil revenue alone.
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For many years, members of Jonathan's own party, the People's Democratic Party (PDP), hired gangs to attain their crass economic and political objectives in the Delta region and paid off others to rig elections. At the same time, multinational oil companies, particularly Royal Dutch Shell, have despoiled the environment and used heavy-handed tactics to maintain their lucrative extraction industry. In southern Nigeria during the early 1990s, human rights organizations and Nigerian activist Ken Saro-Wiwa (1941-1995) brought lawsuits against Shell alleging that the company had erected a quasi-police state around its oil facilities - and used torture and arbitrary arrest to prevent the indigenous Ogoni people from exercising their rights to the land and its resources. Under a storm of worldwide criticism, Saro-Wiwa - not the oil-bribed criminals - was hanged by Nigeria's then military government. He was only 54 years-old.
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Over the last decade, the oil companies have made a greater effort to weed out abusive practices among their personnel on the ground, but corruption still abounds. Two years ago, Shell was slapped with a $30 million fine for using a third party to bribe customs officials. Unfortunately, that is symptomatic of much of the oil-politics business in Nigeria.
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As the corrupt Nigerian oil-economy still largely controls Nigerian politics and politicians, Goodluck Jonathan knows quite well that neither he nor his government runs Nigeria. That is why they took the brazen action of trying to eliminate the oil subsidy. Although a source of political contamination due to its corrupt administration, the oil subsidy is also the one benefit from oil that allows nearly all Nigerians to remain economically afloat. How could Jonathan have been and apparently still be blind to how much the Nigerian people rely on the subsidy?
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One Step Up, Two Steps Back
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After an effective national strike protesting the removal of the fuel subsidy, Jonathan and his government entered into negotiations with the major unions to end the work stoppage. Many media outlets reported that the government had "backed down" or "yielded" to the demands of the nation. Yet, that assessment seems to gloss over the larger significance of the outcome.
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The fuel subsidy has only been partly reinstated. Prior to 1 January, Nigerians paid 65 naira per liter for petrol. After the subsidy was scrapped, the price of one liter of gasoline shot up to 141 naira - more than double the subsidized price. In the crisis negotiations between the government and the unions, the unions agreed to a fixed price of 97 naira per liter and ended the strike. Notably, government officials have indicated that the restoration of the fuel subsidy is temporary.
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Rather than the government "backing down" or "yielding," it is the unions who have ultimately backed down and yielded to government brinksmanship. Much of the subsidy has been eliminated, and the government intends to phase out the rest in the future.
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If a Nigerian worker makes one or two dollars a day, how can he or she afford to fill up a twelve gallon tank at the full market price? As many Nigerians are reliant on water transportation (boats), the same will apply. Businesses, of course, have already passed on increased transportation costs by hiking the price of their goods. The cost of food, clothing, medicine and a host of other essential items have skyrocketed 49% since end of the fuel subsidy.
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The Road Home for Nigeria
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While campaigning in 2011, Goodluck Jonathan won over his country with charismatic speeches that touched the deepest chords of hope among Nigerians. In one of his most inspiring addresses, he lifted the sights of Nigerians by stating,
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"In my early days in school I had no shoes, no school bags. I carried my books in my hands but never despaired; no car to take me to school, but I never despaired.
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There were days I had only one meal, but I never despaired. I walked miles and crossed rivers to school every day, but I never despaired. (I) didn't have power, didn't have generators, studied with lanterns, but I never despaired. In spite of these, I finished secondary school, attended the University of Port Harcourt, and now hold a doctoral degree. Fellow Nigerians, if I could make it, you too can make it."
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Mr. Jonathan, should Nigerian have to "make it" without power and book bags when oil revenue can supply the needs of the nation if managed properly? What does the average Nigerian think when he or she sees their economic lifeline (the fuel subsidy) removed when little to nothing has been done to tackle corruption inside and outside the government or force the multinational oil companies to use their technocratic expertise and wealth to enhance the lives of Nigerians rather than damage the environment and poison the political culture? What does the average Nigerian think when his or her labor union agrees to reduce the fuel subsidy and call off the nationwide strike to preserve its own power? If Nigerians cannot trust the president, the government, the big business sector or the unions, who can they trust?
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Welcome to Nigeria. "If you can survive Nigeria, you can survive anywhere."
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This is not what the country signed up for in electing Jonathan last year. While Nigerians may wish to despair, they should not do so yet. During the nationwide strike, something ought to have become quite apparent to Nigerians. When united as one - Yoruba, Hausa-Fulani, Igbo, Christian, Muslim, Animist, man, woman, child and everyone in between - they can determine their destiny. They can run Nigeria.
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As one, the Nigerian people can head back into the streets to demand: 1) a return of the entire fuel subsidy - perhaps to be eliminated gradually over a number of years and contingent upon broad economic progress, 2) a transparent process by which it is managed, 3) re-negotiation of terms with the oil companies to ensure protection of the environment and a more equitable distribution of profits , 4) a higher and enforced minimum wage, 5) a reduction in the extravagant salaries of government officials and 5) a fully-funded national program to improve education and infrastructure.
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Goodluck Jonathan seems to be a sincere person - a person, however, who has made an unfortunate error. Nigerians can help him recall his humble roots by helping themselves. In democracy, the onus is always on the people to take action and shape the government toward the ends of honesty, tolerance, justice and fairness.
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This is your time, Nigeria. Get involved, take action and do not despair.
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(Photo: Nigerians protesting the repeal of the fuel subsidy, January 2012)
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Key Sources/Further Reading
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1. Christopher Thompson, "'Curse of Oil' Sees Corruption Soar In Nigeria," The Independent (UK) (31 January 2007). See link: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/africa/curse-of-oil-sees-corruption-soar-in-nigeria-434405.html
2. Darren Foster, "Nigeria: The Corruption of Oil," PBS/Frontline (1 May 2007). See link: http://www.pbs.org/frontlineworld/blog/2007/05/nigeria_the_cor.html
3. Eric Guttschuss, "Nigeria's Delta Blues," The Guardian (17 July 2008). See link: http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/jul/17/nigeria.gordonbrown
4. "Shell and Halliburton Quizzed Over Nigeria 'Corruption,'" BBC NEWS (30 November 2010). See link: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-11877434
5. Stephanie Busari, "Goodluck Jonathan: Nigeria's Embattled President," CNN (30 January 2012). See link: http://www.cnn.com/2012/01/23/world/africa/goodluck-jonathan-profile/index.html?hpt=hp_c1
6. "A Countdown In Nigeria," The Japan Times (30 January 2012). See link: http://www.japantimes.co.jp/text/ed20120130a1.html
7. Xan Rice, "Nigerian President Yields On Fuel Subsidy," Financial Times (16 January 2012). See link: http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/9592e0cc-4020-11e1-9bce-00144feab49a.html#axzz1l5Vor0Dl
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J Roquen