Every student of European history can identify the significance of the year 1848 - revolution. Other well-known years of revolution include 1776 (United States), 1789 (France) and 1917 (Russia) in the modern era..
Less than ninety days into 2011, it is apparent that this year will also go down as one of revolution. This time, however, no uprisings are occurring in Europe. Rather, it is North Africa and the Middle East that have revolted against corrupt governments built on oligarchy and militarism. Despite threats, propaganda and violence, the people of Tunisia, Egypt, Bahrain and Libya have not yielded. Their courage is truly inspiring.
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What then do these countries and these peoples have in common? What explains this chain reaction of revolutions? It seems there are four shared characteristics between the citizens of the four aforementioned nations that have prompted revolution from Manama (Bahrain) to Tunis. It should be noted that two corrupt rulers, Hamad Al Khalifa in Bahrain and Muammar Gaddafi of Libya are still clinging to power. Their days, however, are running shorter by the hour.
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A Common Oppressor
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Until their revolutions of 2011, all four governments had or have despotic regimes. After coming to power in an intifada in 1999, Hamad Al Khalifa has limited the role of citizens in the government despite allowing women the vote in 2002. Elections have reportedly been rigged over the years, and the regime has a questionable human rights record at best. Protesters are still spilling into Pearl Square in the capital - hopeful of a new day in Bahrain.
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When Hosni Mubarak took the reins of government in the days after the tragic assassination of Anwar Sadat, it appeared to be a necessary step to restore stability. Thirty years later, he still sat atop the government. By 1 January 2011, Mubarak had compiled an egregious human rights record and pilfered the treasury for years to support his sycophants and himself. Two weeks ago, mass protests forced him to flea the capital. Congratulations Egypt!
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On 1 September 1969, an obscure army soldier named Muammar Gaddafi seized power in a coup. For the past 42 years, Gaddafi has moved between socialism, Pan-Arabism and nationalism to remain in power. He and his family have ruled the country as a personal fiefdom, and his corruption is unquestioned. Today (Friday, 25 February), Gaddafi is hanging onto half of Tripoli. He has lost the rest of his nation, and he will not survive. To the heartbreak of the world, Gaddafi is carrying out summary executions of his "enemies." Hopefully, he will be forced to leave the country, captured and put on trial for war crimes at a tribunal at The Hague.
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The Tunisians, the brave people who first courageously defied their tyrannical government to bring about change for themselves, their children and their children's children, overthrew President Ben Ali after weeks ago after a 24-year kleptocratic reign (1987-2011).
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Corruption, oligarchy, kleptocracy, malfeasance, repression and militarism define or defined the characteristics of these regimes. Despite the fact that all four nations have relatively robust economies (Bahrain currently has the fastest growing economy in the world), a significant percentage of their populations have lived in squalor due to the unethical avarice practiced by the ruling class.
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Urban, Literate and Outspoken
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A second key factor shared by populations of these nations is that they are urban, literate and outspoken. Consider the following percentage of those who live in cities and who can read and write their national language in each country:
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Country-----------------% Urban-------------% Literate
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Bahrain ------------------- 89.0 ------------------ 86.5
Egypt --------------------- 43.4 ------------------ 71.0
Libya ----------------------78.0------------------ 82.6
Tunisia ------------------- 67.0 -------------------74.3
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Although Egypt appears to be anomalous in the category of urban population, it must be remembered that Egypt is the most populous nation in Africa (79 million) and one of the largest. Hence, Cairo and Alexandria contain larger sheer numbers or urban citizens than many (if not all) the other three nations.
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Revolutions need a somewhat literate population and a means to communicate. All four revolutions have been possible due to high literacy rates and the prevalence of Internet and social networking technology. When the message"OMG! Meet me in Pearl Square to raise hell" or something akin to that statement gets tweeted to 3 million angry, resentful, fed-up and jobless people in a concentrated area, it does not take a PhD from Cambridge to calculate the probable result.
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Forms of networking, extant long before the iPad or even the Roman Empire (of which new Roman roads carried the message of Jesus of Nazareth from Damascus to Mainz (Germany), have had a more pronounced effect on the people due to their incredible demographic makeup. Consider the median ages of these nations below:
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Country----------------- Median Age
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Bahrain -------------------30.4
Egypt---------------------- 24.0
Libya ---------------------- 24.2
Tunisia ---------------------29.7
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No, that is not a misprint. All four nations have exceptionally large segments of youthful people. Now, the power of that text message to meet in Tahrir Square in Cairo to protest the government is making more sense, isn't it?!
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Next Stop for Revolution 2011, Iran
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Kleostoday fervently wishes the people of Iran, who currently live under one of the most repressive and undignified regimes in the world, nothing but success in toppling Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and the corrupt Islamic state clerics this year. After being returned to power through rigged elections in 2009, the women of Iran led one of the most inspiring revolts against tyranny in modern times. Do you remember Neda? She was the young woman murdered by the regime's security forces in cold blood on the streets of Tehran. Her crime? Walking with her friends in the capital to protest injustice. Neda, you are not forgotten, and your life was not in vain. The people of Iran will eventually triumph over despotism. Beyond the numbers - 71.0% urban, 77.0% literate and a median age of 26.3 - Iran (Persia) has one of the most beautiful cultures in the world and a people with an unconquerable spirit.
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Other nations ought not be ruled out for revolt and revolution in 2011. Saudi Arabia, North Korea, Venezuela (mass demonstrations against Chavez have occurred over the past few years) and China are but a few.
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Due to the diffusion of Enlightenment thought and the power of modern communication technology, the days of dictatorship are numbered on planet earth. Some regimes, of course, will invent new, highly creative and rapacious means to win and maintain power in the future, but the trend is clear: a free world of equal rights, woman power, greater economic equality and love.
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And if you do not agree, just take a look at history since the American Revolution. Besides, we as a people and a species simply cannot allow an alternative to world peace. We simply cannot.
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(Photo: Protesters in Libya. Note the reworked image of the 2008 Obama campaign. Does that note suggest and perhaps prove that "Hope" is universal?)
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J Roquen